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Ground-based temperature measurements at Svalbard, Wuppertal, and Hohenpeissenberg were analyzed to obtain F10.7, Ap index, and Dst index trends. The trends were then compared to those obtained from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements at the same locations. Trend analysis was carried out for overlapped time periods, full range of available data, and the CO2-detrended full range of available data. The Svalbard meteor radar (SABER) temperature showed a weak (moderate) correlation with F10.7 and a moderate (weak) correlation with Ap and Dst indices. The trends in the Wuppertal OH* temperature compare well with the SABER temperature when a full range of data is used in the analysis. Both temperatures had a similar F10.7 trend with the same level of correlation coefficient. The F10.7 trend in the Hohenpeissenberg OH* temperature compared well with that obtained by SABER, but the former displayed a weak correlation. The Hohenpeissenberg data displayed a very weak correlation with Ap and Dst indices. Our study clearly shows that a longer dataset would better capture trends in temperature, as was evidenced by the results of Wuppertal data. The CO2-detrended temperatures overall showed slightly larger trend values with a slightly better correlation. 

The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements at low latitudes from 89 km to 97 km were used to derive the F10.7 and Ap index trends, and the trends were compared to model simulations. The annual mean nonzonal (e.g., at the model simulation location at 18° N, 290° E) SABER temperature showed a good-to-moderate correlation with F10.7, with a trend of 4.5–5.3 K/100 SFU, and a moderate-to-weak correlation with the Ap index, with a trend of 0.1–0.3 K/nT. The annual mean zonal mean SABER temperature was found to be highly correlated with the F10.7, with a similar trend, and moderately correlated with the Ap index, with a trend in a similar range. The correlation with the Ap index was significantly improved with a slightly larger trend when the zonal mean temperature was fitted with a 1-year backward shift in the Ap index. The F10.7 (Ap index) trends in the simulated O2 and the O(1S) temperature were smaller (larger) than those in the annual mean nonzonal mean SABER temperature. The trends from the simulations were better compared to those in the annual mean zonal mean temperature. The comparisons were even better when compared to the trend results obtained from fitting with a backward shift in the Ap index. 

Airglow intensity-weighted temperature variations induced by the CO2 increase, solar cycle variation (F10.7 as a proxy) and geomagnetic activity (Ap index as a proxy) in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region were simulated to quantitatively assess their influences on airglow temperatures. Two airglow models, MACD-00 and OHCD-00, were used to simulate the O(1S) greenline, O2(0,1) atmospheric band, and OH(8,3) airglow temperature variations induced by these influences to deduce the trends. Our results show that all three airglow temperatures display a linear trend of ~−0.5 K/decade, in response to the increase of CO2 gas concentration. The airglow temperatures were found to be highly correlated with Ap index, and moderately correlated with F10.7, with the OH temperature showing an anti-correlation. The F10.7 and Ap index trends were found to be ~−0.7 ± 0.28 K/100SFU and ~−0.1 ± 0.02 K/nT in the OH temperature, 4.1 ± 0.7 K/100SFU and ~0.6 ± 0.03 K/nT in the O2 temperature and ~2.0 ± 0.6 K/100SFU and ~0.4 ± 0.03 K/nT in the O1S temperature. These results indicate that geomagnetic activity can have a rather significant effect on the temperatures that had not been looked at previously.